Mark Andrews Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Mark Andrews

TE · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Mark Andrews Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-162/+121).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -162.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Mark Andrews to accrue 8.9 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among TEs.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Mark Andrews has been among the leading pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 6.6 receptions per game while checking in at the 100th percentile.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 53.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the 5th-worst paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.87 seconds per snap.
The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Mark Andrews to be much less involved in his team's pass attack this week (29.7% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (39.0% in games he has played).