Mark Andrews Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Mark Andrews

NFL · Player Props

Mark Andrews

TE · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving TD

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 10, 2022 1:50 AM UTC

Analysis

Mark Andrews Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-101/-132).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +155 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -101.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 40.8 pass attempts per game versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
Mark Andrews has compiled far more air yards this year (106.0 per game) than he did last year (96.0 per game).
Mark Andrews's 77.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 61.7.
Mark Andrews ranks in the 100th percentile among tight ends as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a terrific 0.75 per game.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run out of all the games this week at 122.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens have run the 3rd-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 52.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Mark Andrews to be much less involved in his offense's passing offense near the goal line this week (31.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (40.0% in games he has played).
Mark Andrews's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 73.1% to 67.4%.

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