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Mark Andrews

Mark Andrews Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 4

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills

Mark Andrews Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+127/-175).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +172 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +127.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Ravens are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.

Mark Andrews has put up a colossal 100.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile among TEs.

Mark Andrews's 64.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 100th percentile for TEs.

The Baltimore Ravens offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

Mark Andrews grades out in the 100th percentile among tight ends as it relates to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 0.60 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the 5th-worst paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.87 seconds per snap.

The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the NFL.

THE BLITZ projects Mark Andrews to be much less involved in his team's air attack near the end zone this week (31.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (40.0% in games he has played).

The Buffalo Bills pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in football (63.9%) to TEs since the start of last season (63.9%).

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