Mark Andrews Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Mark Andrews

NFL · Player Props

Mark Andrews

TE · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving TD

New York Jets vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Mark Andrews Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+138/-186).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -157 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -186.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens have called the most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 68.8 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Mark Andrews has been a key part of his team's offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 26.8% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 100th percentile among tight ends.
Mark Andrews has totaled a monstrous 96.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile among tight ends.
Mark Andrews's 61.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the league leaders: 100th percentile for tight ends.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line has allowed their quarterback just 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

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