Marcus Mariota TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Marcus Mariota

NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

TD Passes

Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Marcus Mariota TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+227/-339).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -264 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -339.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Atlanta Falcons have utilized some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their plays since the start of last season (7th-most in football), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 4th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 4th-least pass-heavy offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 52.5% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to call the 4th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 54.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to attempt 31.9 passes in this contest, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.

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