Marcus Mariota TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Marcus Mariota

NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

TD Passes

Atlanta Falcons vs Cleveland Browns · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM EST

Analysis

Marcus Mariota TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+150/-180).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Cleveland Browns defense has surrendered the 7th-most passing touchdowns in the NFL: 1.70 per game since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Atlanta Falcons have used some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 7th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 54.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 7th-least pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 55.1% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 55.1 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to attempt 30.6 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 3rd-least of all quarterbacks.

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