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Marcus Mariota

Marcus Mariota TD Passes
Player Prop Week 3

Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons

Marcus Mariota TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+170/-220).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Opposing offenses have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 2nd-highest level in football vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season (74.3%).

The Seattle Seahawks safeties profile as the 4th-worst group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 4th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 55.7% red zone pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run on the slate this week at 118.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 59.0 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to attempt 28.4 passes in this week's contest, on average: the least of all QBs.

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