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Marcus Mariota

Marcus Mariota TD Passes
Player Prop Week 2

Los Angeles Rams vs Atlanta Falcons

Marcus Mariota TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+200/-275).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -240 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -275.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Falcons are a huge 10.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Opposing offenses have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the league.

The Atlanta Falcons have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 58.7% pass rate.

The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 59.2 plays per game.

Marcus Mariota has attempted a mere 4.4 passes per game since the start of last season, checking in at the 3rd percentile among QBs.

The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

Marcus Mariota has been among the weakest TD passers in football since the start of last season, averaging a miserable 0.00 per game while checking in at the 3rd percentile.

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