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Marcus Mariota

Marcus Mariota TD Passes
Player Prop Week 12

Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons

Marcus Mariota TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-155/+105).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Falcons are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.

The Washington Commanders defense has surrendered the 6th-most touchdowns through the air in the league: 1.64 per game this year.

The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Atlanta Falcons have utilized some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (7th-most in the league), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 45.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the least pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 46.6% red zone pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 52.8 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to attempt 25.8 passes in this contest, on average: the 3rd-least of all QBs.

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