Marcus Mariota TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Marcus Mariota

NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

TD Passes

Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Marcus Mariota TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+196/-260).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -260 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -260.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 8th-highest rate in the NFL against the Chicago Bears defense this year (73.4%).
The Chicago Bears cornerbacks rank as the 3rd-worst CB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Chicago Bears pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 48.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the least pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 47.4% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to attempt 27.4 passes this week, on average: the 3rd-least of all QBs.

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