Marcus Mariota TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

TD Passes

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 11, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Marcus Mariota TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-210/+160).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 3rd-highest level in football vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year (74.4%).
The Carolina Panthers safeties grade out as the 7th-worst group of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Atlanta Falcons have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box vs. opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 44.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the least pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 47.6% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 3rd-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.7 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to attempt 25.9 passes in this contest, on average: the 3rd-least of all QBs.