Marcus Mariota Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Marcus Mariota

NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 37.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 33.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 3rd-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 48.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to garner 6.7 carries in this contest, on average: the 5th-most of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to be a much bigger part of his team's run game this week (21.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (13.0% in games he has played).
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year at blocking for the run game.
Marcus Mariota has rushed for quite a few more yards per game (36.0) this season than he did last season (15.0).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons offense to be the 3rd-worst paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 30.10 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Marcus Mariota's running efficiency has tailed off this season, totaling a mere 5.90 yards-per-carry vs a 8.10 mark last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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