Marcus Mariota Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Marcus Mariota

NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-130/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 2nd-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 48.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to notch 6.8 rush attempts this week, on average: the 3rd-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to be a much bigger part of his offense's rushing attack this week (22.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (13.6% in games he has played).
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.
Marcus Mariota has rushed for significantly more yards per game (36.0) this year than he did last year (15.0).

Favors Under

The Falcons are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons offense to be the 8th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.39 seconds per play.
Marcus Mariota's rushing efficiency has diminished this season, totaling a mere 5.65 yards-per-carry compared to a 8.10 rate last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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