Marcus Mariota Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Marcus Mariota

NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 17, 2022 2:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 32.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 5th-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 45.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to garner 6.8 rush attempts this week, on average: the 5th-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to be a more integral piece of his team's run game this week (23.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (13.3% in games he has played).
The Atlanta Falcons O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.
Marcus Mariota has run for quite a few more yards per game (33.0) this season than he did last season (15.0).

Favors Under

The Falcons are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to call the 4th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 54.2 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Marcus Mariota's ground efficiency has diminished this year, accumulating a mere 5.19 yards-per-carry vs a 8.10 rate last year.

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