Marcus Mariota Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Marcus Mariota

NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 8:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-125/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 5th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 46.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to accumulate 7.3 carries in this game, on average: the 3rd-most of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to be a much bigger part of his team's running game this week (25.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (9.3% in games he has played).
Marcus Mariota has averaged 22.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in the league among QBs (79th percentile).
The Atlanta Falcons have utilized some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their plays since the start of last season (7th-most in football), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run on the slate this week at 118.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 59.0 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Marcus Mariota's ground efficiency has worsened this season, compiling a mere 4.93 yards-per-carry vs a 8.10 rate last season.
The Seattle Seahawks defense owns the 5th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, yielding just 4.06 yards-per-carry.

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