Marcus Mariota Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Marcus Mariota

NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 11:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 30.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 35.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 7th-most run-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 41.3% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to notch 5.6 carries in this week's game, on average: the 8th-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this week (21.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (10.4% in games he has played).
Marcus Mariota has picked up 23.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in the league among QBs (81st percentile).

Favors Under

The Falcons are a huge 10.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 59.2 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Marcus Mariota's rushing effectiveness has worsened this season, notching a mere 6.48 yards-per-carry vs a 8.10 rate last season.
The Los Angeles Rams defense has had the 4th-best efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, giving up just 4.04 yards-per-carry.

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