Marcus Mariota Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Marcus Mariota

NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing Yards

Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (+101/-134).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 34.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 34.5 @ -134.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 54.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to total 8.0 rush attempts in this week's game, on average: the 3rd-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to be much more involved in his offense's rushing attack this week (23.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (12.8% in games he has played).
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in football this year at run-game blocking.
Marcus Mariota has rushed for many more yards per game (34.0) this year than he did last year (15.0).

Favors Under

The Falcons are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 52.8 plays per game.
Marcus Mariota's running effectiveness has declined this season, totaling just 5.66 yards-per-carry vs a 8.10 rate last season.
Opposing teams have run for the 6th-least yards in the NFL (just 103 per game) versus the Washington Commanders defense this year.

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