Marcus Mariota Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Marcus Mariota

NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 3rd-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.8% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to earn 6.9 rush attempts this week, on average: the 6th-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to be much more involved in his offense's run game this week (21.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (11.9% in games he has played).
The Atlanta Falcons O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in run blocking.
Marcus Mariota has rushed for a lot more yards per game (35.0) this year than he did last year (15.0).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Marcus Mariota's running efficiency has diminished this year, accumulating just 6.23 yards-per-carry compared to a 8.10 mark last year.
The Atlanta Falcons have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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