Marcus Mariota Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Marcus Mariota

NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 11, 2022 12:36 AM EST

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 30.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 2nd-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to garner 8.3 rush attempts in this game, on average: the 4th-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to be a more important option in his team's run game this week (23.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (12.5% in games he has played).
The Atlanta Falcons O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.
Marcus Mariota has run for a lot more yards per game (35.0) this year than he did last year (15.0).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 3rd-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.7 plays per game.
Marcus Mariota's rushing effectiveness has tailed off this season, compiling just 5.85 yards-per-carry compared to a 8.10 rate last season.
The Carolina Panthers defensive tackles grade out as the 3rd-best collection of DTs in the NFL this year with their run defense.
The Atlanta Falcons have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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