Marcus Mariota Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Marcus Mariota

NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing TD

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+196/-290).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -284 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -290.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the most run-centric offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 52.6% red zone run rate.
Marcus Mariota isn't afraid to run the ball himself near the end zone, accounting for 21.3% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone rush attempts this year (89th percentile among quarterbacks).
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year at blocking for the run game.
Marcus Mariota has rushed for 0.25 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in the NFL among QBs (89th percentile).
The Los Angeles Chargers defensive ends rank as the 3rd-worst group of DEs in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons offense to be the 3rd-worst paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 30.10 seconds per play.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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