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Marcus Mariota

Marcus Mariota Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 6

Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers

Marcus Mariota Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+236/-376).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +265 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +236.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 5th-most run-oriented team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 47.5% red zone run rate.

Marcus Mariota isn't afraid to run the ball himself near the end zone, accounting for 28.0% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone rush attempts this year (94th percentile among quarterbacks).

The Atlanta Falcons O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.

Marcus Mariota has rushed for 0.20 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest marks in football among QBs (82nd percentile).

The Atlanta Falcons have utilized some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their plays since the start of last season (7th-most in football), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Falcons are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to call the 4th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 54.2 plays per game.

Opposing squads have run for the 7th-least touchdowns in the league (0.60 per game) against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year.

The San Francisco 49ers safeties profile as the best safety corps in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

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