Marcus Mariota Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Marcus Mariota

NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+272/-460).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -422 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -460.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 5th-most run-centric team in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 46.0% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Marcus Mariota isn't afraid to call his own number near the goal line, accounting for 29.2% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone rush attempts this year (94th percentile among QBs).
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line grades out as the best in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.
Marcus Mariota has rushed for 0.25 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest marks in football among QBs (83rd percentile).

Favors Under

The Falcons are a giant 10-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 53.2 plays per game.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 6th-least touchdowns in the NFL (0.50 per game) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties grade out as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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