Marcus Mariota Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing TD

Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 8:10 PM UTC

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+235/-372).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +237 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +235.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 9th-most run-heavy offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 44.3% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to be a more important option in his offense's run game near the end zone this week (31.1% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (18.7% in games he has played).
Marcus Mariota has rushed for 0.22 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest marks in the NFL among QBs (89th percentile).
The Atlanta Falcons have utilized some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their plays since the start of last season (7th-most in football), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run on the slate this week at 118.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 59.0 plays per game.
The Seattle Seahawks defensive tackles project as the best unit in football since the start of last season with their run defense.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.