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Marcus Mariota

Marcus Mariota Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 2

Los Angeles Rams vs Atlanta Falcons

Marcus Mariota Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+267/-437).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -337 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -437.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 10th-most run-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 43.9% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Marcus Mariota isn't afraid to call his own number near the end zone, accounting for 50.0% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone carries this year (96th percentile among quarterbacks).

Marcus Mariota has rushed for 0.25 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest marks in the league among QBs (92nd percentile).

Opposing offenses have rushed for the 7th-most touchdowns in football (1.06 per game) versus the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Falcons are a huge 10.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 59.2 plays per game.

The Los Angeles Rams defensive ends rank as the best unit in football since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

The Atlanta Falcons have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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