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Marcus Mariota

Marcus Mariota Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 13

Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Marcus Mariota Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+198/-294).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -237 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -294.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the most run-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 54.1% red zone run rate.

Marcus Mariota isn't afraid to run the ball himself near the goal line, accounting for 20.9% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone carries this year (86th percentile among QBs).

The Atlanta Falcons offensive line grades out as the best in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.

Marcus Mariota has rushed for 0.25 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in the NFL among quarterbacks (86th percentile).

The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackles rank as the 4th-worst collection of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 52.8 plays per game.

Opposing offenses have rushed for the 4th-least touchdowns in football (0.55 per game) vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year.

The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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