Marcus Mariota Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Marcus Mariota

NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing TD

Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+262/-435).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +273 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +262.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the most run-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 53.4% red zone run rate.
Marcus Mariota isn't afraid to run the ball near the goal line, accounting for 21.0% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone carries this year (86th percentile among QBs).
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in football this year at run-game blocking.
Marcus Mariota has run for 0.27 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest marks in the NFL among quarterbacks (86th percentile).
The Atlanta Falcons have utilized some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (7th-most in the league), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

The Falcons are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 52.8 plays per game.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 7th-least TDs in the league (0.55 per game) vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year.
The Washington Commanders safeties grade out as the best safety corps in football this year in regard to run defense.

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