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Marcus Mariota

Marcus Mariota Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 11

Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears

Marcus Mariota Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+215/-329).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +218 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +215.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the most run-centric offense in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 52.6% red zone run rate.

Marcus Mariota isn't afraid to be involved in the run game near the end zone, accounting for 19.0% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone rush attempts this year (86th percentile among QBs).

The Atlanta Falcons O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in run blocking.

Marcus Mariota has run for 0.20 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in the NFL among QBs (77th percentile).

Opposing offenses have run for the most touchdowns in the league (1.70 per game) versus the Chicago Bears defense this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.6 plays per game.

The Atlanta Falcons have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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