Marcus Mariota Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing TD

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 11, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+227/-348).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -300 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -348.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the most run-oriented offense in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 52.4% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to be much more involved in his team's run game near the end zone this week (24.7% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (19.3% in games he has played).
The Atlanta Falcons O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.
Marcus Mariota has run for 0.22 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest marks in the NFL among quarterbacks (84th percentile).
Opposing squads have run for the 5th-most touchdowns in the NFL (1.33 per game) versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 3rd-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.7 plays per game.
The Carolina Panthers defensive tackles grade out as the 3rd-best collection of DTs in the NFL this year with their run defense.
The Atlanta Falcons have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box vs. opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.