Marcus Mariota Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Marcus Mariota

NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Passing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 175.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 170.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 175.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Marcus Mariota has passed for substantially more yards per game (173.0) this year than he did last year (1.0).
Marcus Mariota has been among the most effective quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 7.50 yards-per-target while grading out in the 82nd percentile.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 8th-highest rate in the NFL against the Chicago Bears defense this year (73.4%).
The Chicago Bears pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency this year, allowing 8.43 yards-per-target: the 5th-most in the league.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 48.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to attempt 27.4 passes this week, on average: the 3rd-least of all QBs.
Opposing teams have averaged 28.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in football.

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