Marcus Mariota Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Marcus Mariota

NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Passing Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 11, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 159.5 (+101/-129).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 159.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 159.5 @ -129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Marcus Mariota has thrown for quite a few more yards per game (170.0) this year than he did last year (1.0).
Marcus Mariota has been among the most effective passers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 7.59 yards-per-target while checking in at the 79th percentile.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 3rd-highest level in football vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year (74.4%).
The Carolina Panthers safeties grade out as the 7th-worst group of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 44.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 3rd-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.7 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to attempt 25.9 passes in this contest, on average: the 3rd-least of all QBs.
Marcus Mariota has been among the worst precision passers in football this year with a 60.3% Completion%, grading out in the 15th percentile.

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