Marcus Mariota Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Completions

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+108/-148).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -127 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -148.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 6th-highest level in the NFL against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year (73.6%).
The Los Angeles Chargers cornerbacks project as the 8th-worst CB corps in football this year in pass coverage.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Atlanta Falcons have incorporated some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their plays since the start of last season (7th-most in football), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 3rd-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 51.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons offense to be the 3rd-worst paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 30.10 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to attempt 30.4 passes in this week's game, on average: the 3rd-least of all quarterbacks.
Marcus Mariota has been among the least on-target quarterbacks in football this year with a 61.2% Completion%, ranking in the 23rd percentile.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line has allowed their QB a measly 2.41 seconds before getting pressured (7th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all air attack metrics across the board.