Marcus Mariota Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Marcus Mariota

NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Completions

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+131/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 8th-most in football.
The Carolina Panthers cornerbacks grade out as the 9th-worst CB corps in football this year in covering receivers.
The Atlanta Falcons have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box versus opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Falcons are a 4.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 48.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 123.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in football this year, totaling just 52.3 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to attempt 27.9 passes in this game, on average: the 2nd-least of all quarterbacks.

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