Marcus Mariota Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Marcus Mariota

NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Completions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-110/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a giant 10-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 41.2 pass attempts per game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Atlanta Falcons have used some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their plays since the start of last season (7th-most in football), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 4th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 53.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to attempt 33.2 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 8th-least of all quarterbacks.
Marcus Mariota has been among the least on-target QBs in the NFL this year with a 57.2% Completion%, ranking in the 9th percentile.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest rate in football against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year (63.5%).

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