Marcus Mariota Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Completions

Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 8:10 PM UTC

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-145/+109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 2nd-highest level in football vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season (74.3%).
The Seattle Seahawks safeties profile as the 4th-worst group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 4th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run on the slate this week at 118.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 59.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to attempt 28.4 passes in this week's contest, on average: the least of all QBs.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.