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Marcus Mariota Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-132/+100).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.Opposing teams have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 7th-most in football.The Atlanta Falcons O-line grades out as the 9th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass attack stats across the board.The Pittsburgh Steelers cornerbacks profile as the 6th-worst CB corps in football this year in pass coverage.The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 49.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 52.8 plays per game.THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to attempt 28.3 passes this week, on average: the 2nd-least of all quarterbacks.Marcus Mariota has been among the least on-target QBs in football this year with a 61.1% Completion%, grading out in the 15th percentile.
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