Marcus Mariota Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Marcus Mariota

NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Carries

Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 5th-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 45.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to garner 6.8 rush attempts this week, on average: the 5th-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to be a more integral piece of his team's run game this week (23.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (13.3% in games he has played).
The Atlanta Falcons O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.

Favors Under

The Falcons are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to call the 4th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 54.2 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The San Francisco 49ers safeties profile as the best safety corps in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

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