Marcus Mariota Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Marcus Mariota

NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Carries

Atlanta Falcons vs Cleveland Browns · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:10 PM EST

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 7th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 45.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to earn 6.6 rush attempts in this week's game, on average: the 5th-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to be much more involved in his team's run game this week (23.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (16.0% in games he has played).
The Cleveland Browns defensive tackles rank as the 6th-worst DT corps in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 55.1 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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