Marcus Mariota Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Marcus Mariota

NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Carries

Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 23, 2022 9:50 PM EST

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+100/-137).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 4th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 47.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to garner 7.4 carries in this game, on average: the 3rd-most of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to be a more integral piece of his offense's run game this week (25.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (9.3% in games he has played).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 118.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 59.0 plays per game.
The Seattle Seahawks defensive tackles project as the best unit in football since the start of last season with their run defense.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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