Marcus Mariota Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Carries

Los Angeles Rams vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 11:25 PM EST

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-160/+120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 7th-most run-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 41.3% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to notch 5.6 carries in this week's game, on average: the 8th-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this week (21.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (10.4% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box versus opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Falcons are a huge 10.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 59.2 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Los Angeles Rams defensive ends rank as the best unit in football since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.
The Atlanta Falcons have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.