Marcus Mariota Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Carries

Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-136/+102).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 2nd-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 50.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to earn 6.7 carries in this contest, on average: the 5th-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this week (21.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (13.5% in games he has played).
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line grades out as the best in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackles rank as the 4th-worst collection of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 52.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.