Marcus Mariota Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Marcus Mariota

NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Carries

Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-145/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -131 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 54.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to total 8.0 rush attempts in this week's game, on average: the 3rd-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to be much more involved in his offense's rushing attack this week (23.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (12.8% in games he has played).
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in football this year at run-game blocking.

Favors Under

The Falcons are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 52.8 plays per game.
The Washington Commanders safeties grade out as the best safety corps in football this year in regard to run defense.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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