Marcus Mariota Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Marcus Mariota

NFL · Player Props

Marcus Mariota

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Carries

Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 19, 2022 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Marcus Mariota Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-105/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 3rd-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to earn 7.0 rush attempts this week, on average: the 6th-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to be much more involved in his offense's run game this week (21.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (11.9% in games he has played).
The Atlanta Falcons O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in run blocking.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to run the 2nd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Atlanta Falcons have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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