Malik Willis TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Malik Willis

NFL · Player Props

Malik Willis

QB · Tennessee Titans

TD Passes

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Malik Willis TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-174/+136).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 43.3 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in the league.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-highest clip in the NFL versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year (73.9%).
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has conceded the most passing TDs in the NFL: 2.43 per game this year.
The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 3rd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 51.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 3rd-least pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 49.9% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 52.7 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

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