Malik Willis TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 8

NFL · Player Props

Malik Willis

QB · Tennessee Titans

TD Passes

Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Malik Willis TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-235/+175).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -210 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -235.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 10th-most in football.
The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have incorporated play action on 30.3% of their passing plays since the start of last season (7th-most in the league), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 47.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 52.6% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have called the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 52.5 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans O-line profiles as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.