Malik Willis TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 16

NFL · Player Props

Malik Willis

QB · Tennessee Titans

TD Passes

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Malik Willis TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +119 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans safeties grade out as the worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have incorporated play action on 30.3% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.
The Tennessee Titans have used some form of misdirection on 50.7% of their plays since the start of last season (10th-most in the league), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

The Titans are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 40.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 6th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 53.2% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 52.9 plays per game.