Malik Willis Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Malik Willis

NFL · Player Props

Malik Willis

QB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing TD

Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:26 PM EST

Analysis

Malik Willis Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+207/-317).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +257 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +207.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 6th-most run-oriented offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 47.4% red zone run rate.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 4th-most touchdowns in the league (1.33 per game) vs. the Houston Texans defense this year.
The Houston Texans linebackers profile as the worst LB corps in the league this year with their run defense.
The Tennessee Titans have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.
The Tennessee Titans have used some form of misdirection on 50.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (10th-most in football), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have called the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 52.5 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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