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Mack Hollins

Mack Hollins Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Indianapolis Colts vs Buffalo Bills

Mack Hollins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +140 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Buffalo Bills to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 62.3% pass rate.

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.

Mack Hollins's 68.6% Route Participation Rate this season represents a significant gain in his pass game utilization over last season's 33.3% rate.

The Bills O-line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has surrendered the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (73.2%) to wideouts this year (73.2%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 4.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on running than their standard game plan.

The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 123.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The fewest plays in football have been called by the Buffalo Bills this year (a measly 52.7 per game on average).

With a measly 1.6 adjusted receptions per game (25th percentile) this year, Mack Hollins stands as one of the weakest WRs in the league in the NFL.

Mack Hollins's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 59.7% to 52.2%.

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