Mack Hollins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Mack Hollins

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receptions

Los Angeles Rams vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 9, 2022 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Mack Hollins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Mack Hollins has been used less as a potential target this year (95.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (30.9%).
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Mack Hollins's receiving performance has been refined this year, notching 3.7 yards per game vs a mere 1.1 last year.
Mack Hollins's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% increasing from 50.1% to 65.2%.

Favors Under

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Raiders are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season.
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box against opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.