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Mack Hollins

Mack Hollins Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Las Vegas Raiders vs Indianapolis Colts

Mack Hollins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+136/-183).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -167 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +136.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Mack Hollins has been less involved as a potential target this year (92.8% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (31.1%).

Mack Hollins's receiving skills have been refined this year, compiling 3.5 yards per game compared to just 1.1 last year.

Mack Hollins's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% jumping from 50.1% to 68.7%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Raiders are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 7th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-least in football.

The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

The Las Vegas Raiders have used play action on a mere 16.4% of their passing plays since the start of last season (least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

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