Mack Hollins Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Mack Hollins

NFL · Player Props

Mack Hollins

WR · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Mack Hollins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-108/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
This year, the weak Washington Commanders defense has yielded a whopping 206.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing wideouts: the 3rd-worst in football.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency against wideouts this year, conceding 10.74 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the most in the league.
When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Washington's group of LBs has been very bad this year, profiling as the 4th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The model projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 5th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 53.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 126.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Mack Hollins's 63.0% Route Participation% this season signifies a a noteable drop-off in his air attack volume over last season's 93.4% mark.
After accumulating 64.0 air yards per game last year, Mack Hollins has gotten worse this year, currently pacing 55.0 per game.
Mack Hollins's 24.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season signifies a a material decrease in his receiving talent over last season's 42.0 figure.

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